EXOTIC EMERGENCIES: HOW CLIMATE CHANGE COULD TAKE A BITE OUT OF LEXINGTON'S IMPORTED STAPLES
by Joshua Dyer
Climate change is an issue that has been argued about by various political factions ad nauseam, so much so that even those who accept climate change as fact may find themselves asking ‘why should I even care anymore?’
One answer lies in our voracious appetite for tropical foods and luxury products such as palm oil, bean plants (think cocoa and coffee) and even bananas. Obviously there is no local alternative to these products in the U.S., and it takes dedicated industries in tropical nations around the world to meet our demands.
Climate change is an issue that has been argued about by various political factions ad nauseam, so much so that even those who accept climate change as fact may find themselves asking ‘why should I even care anymore?’
One answer lies in our voracious appetite for tropical foods and luxury products such as palm oil, bean plants (think cocoa and coffee) and even bananas. Obviously there is no local alternative to these products in the U.S., and it takes dedicated industries in tropical nations around the world to meet our demands.
- Indonesia, which produces over half the global supply of palm oil, is attempting to double its production by 2020 to keep pace with demand;
- The International Cocoa Association reported in 2013 that yields were 75,000 metric tons short of predictions that year
- The very existence of the term ‘banana republic’ shows that entire nations were already growing at near capacity across Latin America to meet demand for the world’s favorite fruit over a century ago.
PALM OIL: A SHADOW OVER INDONESIA
Palm oil may seem less familiar than coffee or bananas, but it’s found in a huge variety of products that many Kentuckians use every day, from chocolate bars to luxury cosmetics.
“Palm oil, especially in Sumatra, is a really sticky widget” says Dr. Krista Jacobsen, a professor who does research with sustainable agriculture in UK’s Department of Horticulture.
“It does go into luxury goods, but it’s also used as a biofuel and goes industrial feed stocks, and that’s what’s pushing this huge demand.”
It may not be your chocolate bar or beauty cream, but your burger that’s driving the demand for palm oil. As obesity becomes more of a concern in the U.S. and meat consumption rises in Asia, vegetable oils for cooking have become more attractive – palm oil is the fastest growing oil plant industry in the world, outpacing peanuts, soybeans, and coconuts. In addition, we use the oil to create biofuels, which in turn are used to produce corn that is fed to livestock.
But there’s more than a simple supply and demand increase at the heart of Indonesia’s destructive palm oil industry – as a developing country, many Indonesian politicians have a keen interest in turning a blind eye to ecological destruction in favor of economic development.
As Dr. Jacobsen explains, “Part of the deal with the palm oil expansion is that the palm oil companies that direct it are half owned by the government, half owned by private – it’s a semiprivatized corporation that has been set up to increase exports for Indonesia, to increase their GDP. So it’s not strictly the hand of the market affecting these things.”
This is a clear conflict of interest for the Indonesian government. It’s become difficult to gauge the sincerity of what the government is saying about its desire to reduce emissions, because, of the steps the country has taken, many are either poorly enforced or irrelevant, done only as symbolic gestures to stay in the good graces of more industrially developed countries.
For example, the Kyoto Protocol, a famous international treaty signed by Indonesia as well as dozens of other countries as a legal commitment to reduce emissions, does not apply to emissions from soil, degraded vegetation, and forest fires. Yet these account for a vast majority of Indonesia’s CO2 emissions – according to a joint study by the Universities of Cambridge and Leicester and the University of Palangka Raya in Indonesia, the 1997 Indonesian fires released the “equivalent to between 13 and 40% of mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels and contributed to the largest annual increase in atmospheric CO2 since records began.” (Harrison 157)
Indonesia’s moratorium on clearing rainforests has also fallen on deaf ears – the World Resources Institute found that only 3 of 8 local Indonesian officials knew the actual bounds protected by the moratorium. In addition, local law enforcement is often corrupt in Indonesia, allowing plantations to burn away forests with impunity.
The end result is that consumers in Lexington are left between a rock and a hard place when it comes to making environmentally ethical purchasing decisions, especially college students with limited budgets.
Palm oil may seem less familiar than coffee or bananas, but it’s found in a huge variety of products that many Kentuckians use every day, from chocolate bars to luxury cosmetics.
“Palm oil, especially in Sumatra, is a really sticky widget” says Dr. Krista Jacobsen, a professor who does research with sustainable agriculture in UK’s Department of Horticulture.
“It does go into luxury goods, but it’s also used as a biofuel and goes industrial feed stocks, and that’s what’s pushing this huge demand.”
It may not be your chocolate bar or beauty cream, but your burger that’s driving the demand for palm oil. As obesity becomes more of a concern in the U.S. and meat consumption rises in Asia, vegetable oils for cooking have become more attractive – palm oil is the fastest growing oil plant industry in the world, outpacing peanuts, soybeans, and coconuts. In addition, we use the oil to create biofuels, which in turn are used to produce corn that is fed to livestock.
But there’s more than a simple supply and demand increase at the heart of Indonesia’s destructive palm oil industry – as a developing country, many Indonesian politicians have a keen interest in turning a blind eye to ecological destruction in favor of economic development.
As Dr. Jacobsen explains, “Part of the deal with the palm oil expansion is that the palm oil companies that direct it are half owned by the government, half owned by private – it’s a semiprivatized corporation that has been set up to increase exports for Indonesia, to increase their GDP. So it’s not strictly the hand of the market affecting these things.”
This is a clear conflict of interest for the Indonesian government. It’s become difficult to gauge the sincerity of what the government is saying about its desire to reduce emissions, because, of the steps the country has taken, many are either poorly enforced or irrelevant, done only as symbolic gestures to stay in the good graces of more industrially developed countries.
For example, the Kyoto Protocol, a famous international treaty signed by Indonesia as well as dozens of other countries as a legal commitment to reduce emissions, does not apply to emissions from soil, degraded vegetation, and forest fires. Yet these account for a vast majority of Indonesia’s CO2 emissions – according to a joint study by the Universities of Cambridge and Leicester and the University of Palangka Raya in Indonesia, the 1997 Indonesian fires released the “equivalent to between 13 and 40% of mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels and contributed to the largest annual increase in atmospheric CO2 since records began.” (Harrison 157)
Indonesia’s moratorium on clearing rainforests has also fallen on deaf ears – the World Resources Institute found that only 3 of 8 local Indonesian officials knew the actual bounds protected by the moratorium. In addition, local law enforcement is often corrupt in Indonesia, allowing plantations to burn away forests with impunity.
The end result is that consumers in Lexington are left between a rock and a hard place when it comes to making environmentally ethical purchasing decisions, especially college students with limited budgets.
COCOA: AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE ON AFRICA’S SHORES
Many Americans believe that cocoa is a Latin American product due to its famous origins as a delicacy domesticated by the Aztecs. Yet today, over half the world’s cocoa is produced in Ghana and the Ivory Coast.
Today, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire highlight the strain that climate shifts have put on small tropical farmers, and the challenges that that presents for reaching an ideal products are grown by such independent growers, even in region that has historically dealt with climate change.
As early as the 1920’s and 30’s, Joseph M. Hodge writes, “colonial technical officers working in West Africa grew alarmed over what appeared to be an urgent, climatic… problem involving drought… and ‘savannization’.” (201) Indigenous agricultural practices seemed to be slowly be turning the tropical forests into scrubland, and tree product like cocoa were in peril. Although the drought theory was prevalent, a strong minority of agronomists argued tooth-and-nail that it was Cacao swollen shoot virus that was killing the cocoa.
Today, it appears that both sides were partially right – drought and disease both threaten African cocoa, and they appear to compound one another. When plants are stressed by drought, they become more susceptible to the diseases. As they fall victim, more of the forest is cleared. Because comparatively wet forests are much better at scrubland at retaining moisture, and contribute to cloud formation through transpiration (essentially, plant breathing), the more forests die, and the drier things get, creating a vicious circle.
Needless to say, small farmers are overwhelmed.
“Part of the problem, especially with cocoa” says Dr. Jacobsen, “is that it’s produced by small holder farmers. We think we’re a small farm state in Kentucky with our average farm size being about 150 acres compared to the national average of about 400 acres. Cocoa farmers in Ghana and the Ivory Coast? You’re talking an acre or two. They don’t have the size or the diversity to buffer that risk.”
As she explains, at the end of the day, that means that chocolate supplies are at great risk.
“If these disease issues become extremely problematic with shifts in climate and rainy and dry seasons changing to conditions that are more stressful for these plants and make them more susceptible to these diseases, the farmers will rip out the cocoa and put in something else. That certainly could happen.”
Farmers, especially small farmers, have to feed themselves, and 50 million people worldwide rely on cocoa for a livelihood. Current climate models predict that cocoa growing areas will shrink up through the year 2050. If this contraction continues, supply won’t keep up with demand and chocolate prices will go up. It’s not just a treat that’s at risk – it’s an entire way of life.
Many Americans believe that cocoa is a Latin American product due to its famous origins as a delicacy domesticated by the Aztecs. Yet today, over half the world’s cocoa is produced in Ghana and the Ivory Coast.
Today, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire highlight the strain that climate shifts have put on small tropical farmers, and the challenges that that presents for reaching an ideal products are grown by such independent growers, even in region that has historically dealt with climate change.
As early as the 1920’s and 30’s, Joseph M. Hodge writes, “colonial technical officers working in West Africa grew alarmed over what appeared to be an urgent, climatic… problem involving drought… and ‘savannization’.” (201) Indigenous agricultural practices seemed to be slowly be turning the tropical forests into scrubland, and tree product like cocoa were in peril. Although the drought theory was prevalent, a strong minority of agronomists argued tooth-and-nail that it was Cacao swollen shoot virus that was killing the cocoa.
Today, it appears that both sides were partially right – drought and disease both threaten African cocoa, and they appear to compound one another. When plants are stressed by drought, they become more susceptible to the diseases. As they fall victim, more of the forest is cleared. Because comparatively wet forests are much better at scrubland at retaining moisture, and contribute to cloud formation through transpiration (essentially, plant breathing), the more forests die, and the drier things get, creating a vicious circle.
Needless to say, small farmers are overwhelmed.
“Part of the problem, especially with cocoa” says Dr. Jacobsen, “is that it’s produced by small holder farmers. We think we’re a small farm state in Kentucky with our average farm size being about 150 acres compared to the national average of about 400 acres. Cocoa farmers in Ghana and the Ivory Coast? You’re talking an acre or two. They don’t have the size or the diversity to buffer that risk.”
As she explains, at the end of the day, that means that chocolate supplies are at great risk.
“If these disease issues become extremely problematic with shifts in climate and rainy and dry seasons changing to conditions that are more stressful for these plants and make them more susceptible to these diseases, the farmers will rip out the cocoa and put in something else. That certainly could happen.”
Farmers, especially small farmers, have to feed themselves, and 50 million people worldwide rely on cocoa for a livelihood. Current climate models predict that cocoa growing areas will shrink up through the year 2050. If this contraction continues, supply won’t keep up with demand and chocolate prices will go up. It’s not just a treat that’s at risk – it’s an entire way of life.
BANANAS: A GENETIC CATACLYSM IN THE WORKS
Bananas are undisputedly the world’s favorite fruit. They’re grown everywhere from Thailand to Hawaii to Honduras, they’re a staple in both the developed and developing worlds, and they’ve surpassed the apple as the most popular fruit in the U.S., with an average consumption of a little over 10 pounds per person per year. But despite their incredible popularity (and in fact, possibly because of it), bananas are in trouble.
In all likelihood, every banana you’ve ever eaten is actually a clone, no matter where it was picked or where you bought it. That’s because the singular variety of banana we eat, the Cavendish, has been specially bred to the point that it simply can’t breed on its own: new plants are made by planting carefully chosen shoots of others. Cloning is simply faster than plant sex.
But in the evolutionary game of rock-paper-scissors that is disease resistance and adaptability, this genetic sameness is akin to exclusively picking ‘rock’ without fail – it’s left bananas with an extreme vulnerability to being rapidly swept though and destroyed by funguses and diseases.
As a matter of fact, it’s happened before: If you’ve ever enjoyed some banana-flavored ice cream or candy, you’ve probably noticed the discrepancy between the flavor of your treat and the real thing. That’s because banana flavoring are based on variety of bananas that used to be grown in the U.S., but is now globally extinct – the Gros Michel, or Big Mike.
The Big Mike was larger and sweeter than the Cavendish, but was wiped out in the 1960’s and 70’s by Panama disease. The hardier Cavendish was chosen as its replacement. But now, the fungi have adapted to sprayings and the Cavendish’s defenses. It’s not a doomsday scenario, but not by much
“We expatriate crops all the time,” says Dr. Jacobsen, referring to the ability to breed new, resistant strains of plants, “and it’s such a staple worldwide that I can’t imagine bananas going extinct. What I can imagine is that we can’t breed new strains fast enough to outpace diseases, supplies go down, and bananas become very expensive.”
A study by Florida International University in Miami used species mapping and several climate models to predict banana growing areas in 2060, and the results are disturbing: “The overall extent of areas… is predicted to decrease by 19%”, and while a few locations will actually gain suitable growing acreage, these “are predicted to occur mainly within area… that are already under agricultural production.” (Machovina 83)
For Lexington, and especially the University of Kentucky, where bananas are a major source of cheap, fresh produce for college students who constantly have to keep an eye on their spending, this could have serious health consequences: rising prices for bananas could lead to students making cheaper but less healthy choices, harming the student body.
Bananas are undisputedly the world’s favorite fruit. They’re grown everywhere from Thailand to Hawaii to Honduras, they’re a staple in both the developed and developing worlds, and they’ve surpassed the apple as the most popular fruit in the U.S., with an average consumption of a little over 10 pounds per person per year. But despite their incredible popularity (and in fact, possibly because of it), bananas are in trouble.
In all likelihood, every banana you’ve ever eaten is actually a clone, no matter where it was picked or where you bought it. That’s because the singular variety of banana we eat, the Cavendish, has been specially bred to the point that it simply can’t breed on its own: new plants are made by planting carefully chosen shoots of others. Cloning is simply faster than plant sex.
But in the evolutionary game of rock-paper-scissors that is disease resistance and adaptability, this genetic sameness is akin to exclusively picking ‘rock’ without fail – it’s left bananas with an extreme vulnerability to being rapidly swept though and destroyed by funguses and diseases.
As a matter of fact, it’s happened before: If you’ve ever enjoyed some banana-flavored ice cream or candy, you’ve probably noticed the discrepancy between the flavor of your treat and the real thing. That’s because banana flavoring are based on variety of bananas that used to be grown in the U.S., but is now globally extinct – the Gros Michel, or Big Mike.
The Big Mike was larger and sweeter than the Cavendish, but was wiped out in the 1960’s and 70’s by Panama disease. The hardier Cavendish was chosen as its replacement. But now, the fungi have adapted to sprayings and the Cavendish’s defenses. It’s not a doomsday scenario, but not by much
“We expatriate crops all the time,” says Dr. Jacobsen, referring to the ability to breed new, resistant strains of plants, “and it’s such a staple worldwide that I can’t imagine bananas going extinct. What I can imagine is that we can’t breed new strains fast enough to outpace diseases, supplies go down, and bananas become very expensive.”
A study by Florida International University in Miami used species mapping and several climate models to predict banana growing areas in 2060, and the results are disturbing: “The overall extent of areas… is predicted to decrease by 19%”, and while a few locations will actually gain suitable growing acreage, these “are predicted to occur mainly within area… that are already under agricultural production.” (Machovina 83)
For Lexington, and especially the University of Kentucky, where bananas are a major source of cheap, fresh produce for college students who constantly have to keep an eye on their spending, this could have serious health consequences: rising prices for bananas could lead to students making cheaper but less healthy choices, harming the student body.
CONCLUSION:
So what can a young Lexingtonian possibly do to impact the knot of geopolitical intrigue, market forces, and climatic apocalypse scenarios? If palm oil, cocoa, and bananas exemplify the threats of corruption, extreme weather, and disease, then the solution may also be summed up as a trifecta: local, organic, and sustainable.
“People really need to consider meat,” says Dr. Jacobsen. “Reducing where you eat on the food chain is a huge piece we can individually do.” In addition, when you do eat meat, try to buy local, organic meat – Kentucky is a small farm state, and through their partnerships with the University of Kentucky, we have excellent data on how exactly these farms produce livestock, and are assisting them in maintaining sustainable practices.
In addition, buying responsibly and simply voicing your concerns to companies is a powerful way to bring about change: in 2009, Cadbury’s New Zealand branch vowed to stop using palm oil in its chocolate and return to cocoa butter in response to a 3500 member strong protest on Facebook.
Finally, their are groups like the Rainforest Alliance that monitor companies giving them the seal of approval for good ecological practices. A quick Google search can tell if a company has been vetted.
"For those crops we can't or don't want to live without, like coffee and bananas, if you're buying organic, you're buying shade grown to some capacity," Dr. Jacobsen finishes. Shade grown crops mean that there is a significant amount of foliage over the plants, implying not only that forests haven't been clear cut or torched to make room for the crops, but also that enough vegetation is left to prevent savannization.
Ultimately, despite being far from the action, climate change directly affects us, and we have the power to directly affect climate change by making responsible choices as consumers. As Laderach and his colleagues eloquently conclude in their study on the future of cocoa growing regions, "These changes will be gradual and leave time for adaptation, though not for complacency... Our results do not show disaster in the making. There is no reason... to panic." (852)
So what can a young Lexingtonian possibly do to impact the knot of geopolitical intrigue, market forces, and climatic apocalypse scenarios? If palm oil, cocoa, and bananas exemplify the threats of corruption, extreme weather, and disease, then the solution may also be summed up as a trifecta: local, organic, and sustainable.
“People really need to consider meat,” says Dr. Jacobsen. “Reducing where you eat on the food chain is a huge piece we can individually do.” In addition, when you do eat meat, try to buy local, organic meat – Kentucky is a small farm state, and through their partnerships with the University of Kentucky, we have excellent data on how exactly these farms produce livestock, and are assisting them in maintaining sustainable practices.
In addition, buying responsibly and simply voicing your concerns to companies is a powerful way to bring about change: in 2009, Cadbury’s New Zealand branch vowed to stop using palm oil in its chocolate and return to cocoa butter in response to a 3500 member strong protest on Facebook.
Finally, their are groups like the Rainforest Alliance that monitor companies giving them the seal of approval for good ecological practices. A quick Google search can tell if a company has been vetted.
"For those crops we can't or don't want to live without, like coffee and bananas, if you're buying organic, you're buying shade grown to some capacity," Dr. Jacobsen finishes. Shade grown crops mean that there is a significant amount of foliage over the plants, implying not only that forests haven't been clear cut or torched to make room for the crops, but also that enough vegetation is left to prevent savannization.
Ultimately, despite being far from the action, climate change directly affects us, and we have the power to directly affect climate change by making responsible choices as consumers. As Laderach and his colleagues eloquently conclude in their study on the future of cocoa growing regions, "These changes will be gradual and leave time for adaptation, though not for complacency... Our results do not show disaster in the making. There is no reason... to panic." (852)